![]() Further, the term cycle denotes a series of events when it should in fact be cyclical as out of the end of the fifth phase a new cycle is born, or even a set of cycles if industries grow enough to diverge.ĬhatGPT is all over the news feeds these days, igniting yet another cycle in the cycles of AI hype that have been prevalent since the 1950s. However, more often than not, the hype is seperated from the tech that can give organizations (and sometimes all of humanity) real productivity gains. There’s also the ever-resent observer effect. It involves a lot of guesswork around subjective, synthetical, and often unsystematic research. The Gartner approach focuses on financials and productivity rather than true adoption. ![]() Not all technologies will follow the cycle. Provided there’s enough market, companies now find success. The mainstream industries embrace the new technology and case studies prove the promised productivity increases. * The fifth is the Plateau of Productivity, when those pilots become deployments and purchase orders. ![]() Every company or IT department now runs a pilot and expectations are lower, but now achievable. * The fourth is the Slope of Enlightenment, where the go-to-market activities of the surviving companies (or even a new generation) begin to have real productivity gains. Some companies suceeded and can show real productivity, and they continue to get investment. * The third is the Trough of Disillusionment, where interest falls off after those failures. * The second is the Peak of Inflated Expectations, when the press picks up the story and companies are born, capital invested, and a large number of projects around the new techology fail. Sometimes the new technology isn’t even usable, but shows promise. * The first is the technology trigger, which is when a breakthrough is found and PoCs, or proof-of-concepts begin to emerge in the world that get press interested in the new technology. The hype cycle simplifies research from career academics like Perez into five phases. There’s certainly an observer effect and those they put in the top right of their four box often enjoy added growth as companies want to be with the most visionary and best when picking a tool.Īnother of Gartner’s graphical design patterns to display technology advances is what they call the “hype cycle”. They lump companies into a standard four-box as Leaders, Challengers, Visionaries, and Niche Players. One is a Magic Quadrant, reports that identify leaders in categories of companies by a vision (or a completeness of vision to be more specific) and the ability to execute, which includes things like go-to-market activities, support, etc. Gartner has developed a number of tools to make it easier to take in the types of analysis they create. They now boast a few billion dollars in revenue per year and serve well over 10,000 customers in more than 100 countries. They wrote reports on industries, dove deeply into new technologies, and got to understand what we now call hype cycles in the ensuing decades. Gartner hired senior people in different industry segments to aid in competitive intelligence, industry research, and of course, to help Wall Street. He was able to parlay that into founding the Gartner Group in 1979. He often bucked the trends to pick winners and made banks, funds, and investors lots of money. ![]() After that failed, he moved into analysis work and quickly became known as a top mind in the technology industry analysts. He went on to work at the software company System Development Corporation (SDC), the US military defense industry, and IBM over the next 13 years before starting his first company. He emigrated to the United States from Tel Aviv at three years old in 1938 and graduated in the 1956 class from MIT, where he got his Master’s at the Sloan School of Management. Her book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital is a must-read for anyone who works in an industry that includes any of those four words, including revolutionaries.Ĭonnecticut-based Gartner Research was founded by GideonGartner in 1979. As a neo-Schumpeterian, she sees technology as a cornerstone of innovation. She’s affiliated with the University College London, the University of Sussex, The Tallinn University of Technology in Astonia and has worked with some influential organizations around technology and innovation. Carlota Perez is a researcher who has studied hype cycles for much of her career.
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